Like horse racing enthusiasts engaged in serious study of the Daily Racing Form, in January engineers, component buyers and sales execs pore over industry projections and market research studies in an attempt to identify this year's technology winners and also-rans.
In terms of tech trends the general consensus among those paid to gaze into a crystal ball puts the Internet of Things, wearable connected devices and solid state lighting (SSL) in the winner's circle. Here's why: Driven by the convergence of increasingly connected devices, cloud computing and the introduction of big data analytics, the “Internet of Things” is comprised of identifiable objects seamlessly integrated into the information network, including addressable sensors embedded in machines to allow them to connect and share information with people and other machines.
A consumer version of Google Glass is expected to be launched during the first quarter.
One characteristic shared by Internet of Things applications is the ability to take real-time information, apply end-to-end analytics and obtain a course of action. An example of how this works is data collected centrally from global production locations that can immediately be studied and responded to by product managers as these events are taking place.
As the Internet becomes an integrated part of our daily lives, the risks associated with being connected have become more apparent. Last year we discovered that information was not as secure from third-party entities -private and governmental-as we had assumed. According to Ericson ConsumerLab research 56 percent of daily Internet users are concerned about privacy issues. However, only 4 percent said that they would actually use the Internet less.
To protect data Internet sites are demanding more complex passwords. This is leading to growing interest in biometric alternatives. For example, Ericsson ConsumerLab found that 52 percent of smartphone users want to use their fingerprints instead of passwords and 48 percent are interested in using eye-recognition to unlock their screen. A total of 74 percent believe that biometric smartphones will become mainstream during 2014.
One candidate for the title of “top tech trend of 2014” involves wearable connected sensors, which allow people to track a variety of personal data – including heart rate, blood pressure and sleep quality -then analyze and share that information wirelessly. Wearables even provide the potential of using technology to “enhance” reality (e.g., Google Glass), ushering in a new era that some call the “quantified self,” whereby every aspect of a person's life is captured and available for dissemination. By 2017 there will be 169.5 million wearable health and fitness devices on the market worldwide according to ABI Research, with about half of these devices designed for remote and home monitoring.
According to industry analysts the LED Lighting sector continues to works through recent over-capacity issues and will renew capital spending this year. Market research firm Strategies Unlimited notes that the average cost per kilo lumen has declined from $13 in 2011 to less than $3.65 but that packaged LED price declines have been partially offset by sapphire wafer cost reduction, yield improvements and wafer size increases.
Declining sapphire prices and the continued competitiveness of silicon carbide (SiC) have taken some wind out of the sails of GaN-on-silicon LED proponents. Lux Research sees SiC and sapphire continuing to dominate the LED market through the decade, benefitting from continued technology improvements to boost throughput and cut costs.
For 2014 lighting manufacturers are looking to reduce part counts and are also turning to mid-power packaged LEDs for applications once thought reserved for advanced high-power products, opening up new market opportunities.
In summary, research firms such as IC Insights have predicted that Internet-capable converging technologies and mobile electronic systems will keep demand for ICs strong through 2017. Total worldwide production value of electronic
systems was projected to increase 4% last year to $1.41 trillion and climb to about $1.74 trillion in 2017, which represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% from $1.36 billion in 2012, according to IC Insights.
By Murray Slovick
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