A study conducted by a major energy think tank, which analyzed energy transitions from the past, has concluded that the next big change—that is, going from fossil fuels to renewable technologies—can be completed within a ten-year timeframe.
The paper, published in the peer-reviewed journal Energy Research & Social Science, details other previous transitions, most notably the move from wood to coal in Europe, which took between 96 and 160 years, and electricity, which took 47 to 69 years before being considered “mainstream”.
Professor Benjamin Sovacool, Director of the Sussex Energy Group at the University of Sussex and the paper’s main author, explains that due to the scarcity of resources, threat of climate change, and significantly improved technological learning and innovation, the global shift to a cleaner energy future could be greatly accelerated.
The study highlights a couple of speedy transitions as examples: Ontario shifted away from coal between 2003 and 2014; Indonesia put into place a fairly major household energy program that saw nearly two-thirds of the country’s population shift from kerosene stoves to LPG stoves in three years; and France saw its electricity supply market go from 4 % in 1970 to 40% in 1982.
In these instances, and a few others, there were some common themes: for one, there was strong government intervention. Also, there was a shift in consumer behavior, which was heavily influenced by incentives and pressure from stakeholders.
Professor Sovacool believes these factors are absolutely necessary to the success of a shorter transition away from fossil fuels to renewable technologies—that is, it must be a collaborative, interdisciplinary, multi-scalar effort.
“Moving to a new, cleaner energy system would require significant shifts in technology, political regulations, tariffs and pricing regimes, and the behavior of users and adopters,” he explains. “Left to evolve by itself – as it has largely been in the past – this can indeed take many decades. A lot of stars have to align all at once.”
“But we have learned a sufficient amount from previous transitions that I believe future transformations can happen much more rapidly.”
To learn more, download the paper — How long will it take? Conceptualizing the temporal dynamics of energy transitions .
Via the University of Sussex
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