Discussions around the metaverse, as well as its implications for 5G (5G Advanced, future 6G) and, by association, immersive technologies like extended reality (XR), which includes augmented and virtual reality (AR/VR), are fascinating because it requires participants to consider current trends, navigate hype cycles and ultimately project out to a distant future that no one can predict with a high degree of precision.
We could start the discussion by outlining several potential use cases enabled by 5G and the demands these applications will place on the network, but the “metaverse” term itself can elicit a myriad of definitions, interpretations and expectations. At the mere mention of “metaverse,” some may immediately envision a range of opportunities, viewing the metaverse as the future of computing or the next internet.
While some may have already written off this future, citing AI as the new future, others may simply not know enough about the metaverse to have formulated any opinion. So before delving into the relationship between the metaverse and 5G, it is valuable to first consider how the metaverse is viewed within the context of this article.
To start, there are elements of a future metaverse that ring true across most views and are important. Two key areas include:
- 2D to 3D transition: User interfaces, digital assets and services will increasingly add 3D elements. This includes new business models, types of digital assets/markets, use cases and applications, changes to workflows and how we communicate and collaborate.
- Decentralization: Decentralization of data (such as control, storage and management), services and content mean more control and value shifting to the end users rather than centralized points of aggregation (e.g., large walled gardens and closed ecosystems). This also means data storage will become far more distributed, with demands coming to devices and across the network edge.
These two pillars of the metaverse (enabling tech being another key pillar) have both fueled the recent hype cycle and provided ample room for skepticism. Skeptics and naysayers will aptly point out that not everyone will be wearing VR head-mounted devices (HMDs) in the foreseeable future. This is true.
Not only are immersive devices not ready for broader mainstream audiences, but there are also individuals who will refuse or are unable to wear HMDs. The future metaverse, however, is not predicated on everyone wearing XR HMDs and living in virtual spaces. The metaverse is the fusion of the real and virtual worlds, not just an emphasis on the latter.
Similarly, the idea of decentralization has often become enmeshed with some of the more revolutionary ideas espoused by some Web3 proponents, such as cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens (NFTs). While digital asset ownership is a key component, it is not intrinsically tied to these forms of business models or even distributed ledgers like blockchain.
Decentralization also speaks to digital identity, which already has significant movement in today’s market as industries grapple with challenges like privacy and data sovereignty.
Many of the tenets of the metaverse are rooted in preexisting trends and are not solely the visions of futurists. One can argue that the metaverse is simply a way to codify many of the preexisting trends under one umbrella term. Furthermore, the metaverse is not one thing or just a collection of ideas, but it is an amalgamation of moving parts that are starting to converge in meaningful ways that we are simply now referring to as a future metaverse. With that in mind, it is best to focus on the buildup to this future and what that journey may look like.
Considering the degree of technological and market development (including standardizations) necessary to build up to a future metaverse, it is important to balance what a future metaverse will require of 5G, 5G Advanced and future 6G networks with expectations when these demands and opportunities come to fruition. Key milestones, such as interoperability of digital assets across platforms/services, mainstream smart glasses, established business models and consumer acceptance, need to be reached before there are significant impacts on 5G networks.
It is also important to keep in mind that mobile networks are part of the broader metaverse picture when we consider some of the key enabling technologies. Figure 1 presents how some of these pieces are coming together.
Figure 1: Enabling technologies of the metaverse (Source: ABI Research)
AI and computing in the metaverse
While some are pointing to AI as the “next big thing,” ending the hype cycle for the metaverse, in truth, AI is a critical technology underpinning the buildup to the metaverse future. Generative AI is already used in 3D content creation, and it will increasingly play a critical role to democratize 3D content creation, making it and the resulting assets accessible to more users. While the video-gaming industry may cause some to think 3D assets and content are plentiful, there is a wide gulf between the volume and availability of 3D content today and the future metaverse.
The use of AI pertains to consumer and enterprise/industrial markets, and one could draw a parallel between the advancements made with photo/image editing and what is coming for 3D content creation. Content creation is not just 3D assets; it could also be data (synthetic data) that is used for simulations and digital twins to test and validate changes to operations, settings, etc., and running multiple scenarios faster than real time to evaluate results across more trials than would not be economically viable (or even safe) in the real world. AI is also essential to automate processes to bring operational efficiencies across workflows and networks that would not be feasible through other conventional means.
AI is also necessary to power future virtual assistants and digital humans that will populate virtual spaces, provide information and services and improve the way we communicate and collaborate. We are already seeing these elements coming in early metaverse efforts like avatars and gaze matching. These applications and services will require additional computational resources, and not just local and cloud but at the edge, especially as immersive devices like smart glasses become used in larger numbers.
Like AI, computing can be a full topic on its own, but the short version is that computational demands will grow from devices to the network edge, operator networks and the cloud. 3D applications, including those leveraging AI, will require more computing power, with use cases today requiring up to 10× more computational resources as more conventional alternatives. The growth in smart glasses is a key barometer for what the impact immersive devices and the metaverse will have on 5G and future cellular networks because it represents a significant change in user behavior.
While AR is already widely used in smartphones, smart glasses create a true pervasive display that will bring content and services to the user anywhere there is connectivity and ample computational resources. These devices will see significantly more use in public spaces, increasing demand on local computing (and storage) resources (edge) and lower-latency connections. The network edge will see distributed computing across devices, multi-access edge computing (MEC), content delivery networks and the cloud—all based on network availability and application demands (latency being a key factor).
Market opportunities in the metaverse
Looking at the industrial metaverse, connectivity also speaks to opportunities for private networks to connect things like assets, sensors and workflows within the IoT domain and link these systems to external partners, supply chain data and external information like weather and traffic. Other industries could use 5G’s ultra-reliable low-latency (URLLC) connections for remote consultations/procedures, onsite communications and collaboration and inspections, as well as remotely controlling unmanned vehicles and devices.
The list of opportunities the metaverse could bring to markets is vast, and so are the potential impacts and demands on 5G networks. The issue is that many of these use cases are either niche or further out on the time horizon before they play a larger role. This is where the hype cycles begin to lose their steam. For example, XR devices are not yet mainstream, private networks and extensive digital twins are viewed as too cost-prohibitive (or complicated) to generate a positive return on investment and billions of dollars of investment have yet to make the metaverse real today.
This causes some to raise the question again: What will drive network demand for 5G like video did for 4G?
First, video isn’t going away, and it will continue to be a massive factor (even in the future metaverse), but we need to understand the development in other areas that require technological advancements and changes to consumer behavior. XR devices are not mainstream and ABI Research currently doesn’t anticipate this to be the case by 2030.
The installed base of smart glasses is expected to be less than 200 million units worldwide by 2030, compared with mobile handset shipments today, which exceed 300 million units per quarter. It is potentially impactful in densely populated areas, but more broadly speaking, it is not yet a transformational impact.
Similarly, VR units are expected to surpass 250 million units (installed base) by 2030, but again, this pales in comparison with other devices. It is worth mentioning that Apple’s Vision Pro is not expected to result in the same kind of “iPhone event” as the company’s first smartphone (cost and form factor alone preclude this), but it does give us a glimpse of what is to come and is possible with XR.
Even if XR devices are not mainstream, growth in metaverse users is expected to grow, and by 2030, ABI Research expects a healthy level of users in virtual spaces that fit the metaverse mold (see Figure 2). These users and metaverse experiences will not all be on cellular networks. Many applications and use cases will happen over Wi-Fi at home across numerous devices, which speaks to the diversity of connectivity and supported devices.
Figure 2: Active users in virtual spaces (Source: ABI Research)
Before the metaverse passes the threshold of 1 billion users, the environment remains very much in the developmental stages—think pre-iOS and Android, if you continue the parallel to smartphones. These platforms and devices were not the first smartphones on the market; they just represented the first devices that better answered the demands of the mainstream audience. We need to divorce ourselves from thinking about the future metaverse solely from the context of today’s technology, devices and services.
I will close with an anecdote from my days in the MBA program many years ago. This was during the height of the feature phone days, when the running joke was that mobile phones would continue to get smaller and smaller, with the exception of smartphones used by some business users. I was one of those exceptions, and my classmates asked why I was carrying such a large phone. I told them it was a smartphone, and when they asked what it offered that their feature phones didn’t, I said it did a better job organizing my contacts and calendar items (there weren’t many apps available at the time). To this, my classmates simply pulled out their physical (paper-based) day planners and said that was all they needed (and would need) and couldn’t understand how putting that information in a phone was more efficient than quickly jotting it down. Less than two years later, Apple launched the iPhone, and the rest is history.
While the metaverse and XR will take longer, there will be some opportunities and impact to 5G networks soon, but we must understand that this process will take time. Investments today are not wasted, so long as they are made with the understanding that the largest impacts are still many years away. There will certainly be demand for some of 5G Advanced’s features, such as URLLC, MEC/edge computing and RedCap (or NR-Light) for IoT and lower-power devices, but not at the level seen during the rise of smartphones and streaming video.
About the author:
As a principal analyst for ABI Research, Michael Inouye orchestrates research and analysis surrounding the metaverse, including hardware, services and related technologies. Mike conducts research in foundational services and markets that will play a key role in the buildup to the metaverse, such as over-the-top video, gaming, digital advertising, social and interactive/immersive media and collaborative and hybrid workspaces. His background provides him with a solid understanding of markets for a wide variety of content, services and technologies within the home, workplace and public spaces.
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