Advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) have been under development for more than several decades now, in pursuit of increased safety in the world of automobiles. Combining a set of sensors, mostly radars and cameras, together with powerful electronic control units, the technology offered promising breakthroughs at the turn of the last decade.
By 2012, several academic research papers had proved that automated emergency braking (AEB) was reducing rear-end crashes by 40% and had the ability to reduce associated fatalities by 15%. High technology could do something about people’s lives and the myth of ADAS was inflated beyond hype.1
In recent years, the emergence of light detection and ranging (LiDAR) technology has invaded the landscape of automotive OEMs and created another ray of hope thanks to its 3D sensing capability. But before going deeper into LiDAR, let’s talk about radar.
As a longstanding sensing technology, radar has been developed over the decades across multiple markets for a wide variety of applications, especially in the automotive space. The automotive market needs a standardized radar sensing approach with the longest-possible range, the widest field of view, the best achievable resolution, and the lowest-possible price.
The most common mounting in automotive is behind a bumper or brand logo or in front of a cooling grill, though sometimes behind a windshield for radar/camera combo sensors. Other mounting approaches are also being investigated, such as in headlamps. The mounting location is carefully selected after considering the required detection performance, the heat-dissipation capability — which is related to the performance — and the mounting space.
Over the past decade, there has been a strong push from the automotive industry to standardize the operational frequency worldwide and to widen the allowed bandwidth to maximize the radar’s range resolution. Now, the industry is coordinating to solve the upcoming interference issue through the German government-funded project IMIKO. Indeed, strong safety incentives from Euro NCAP (see below figure) and others are driving the automotive radar market, which is growing very quickly in numbers.
The stakes are such that many new entrants are positioning to take market share from the major players. As a result, there is strong pressure to innovate for differentiation on either performance or cost.
According to Yole’s latest market and technology report, the radar market in 2019 was worth $3.9 billion for industrial and $5.5 billion for automotive.2
From a technological standpoint, radar sensors have evolved significantly over the last decades. For the automotive market, they now come in small form factors leveraging the progress made by the semiconductor industry. The industry has moved toward almost 100% silicon-based monolithic microwave integrated circuits (MMICs) offered by the market leaders, Infineon and NXP, as well as by other players, including new entrants.
The next big thing in automotive radar will be the so-called 4D imaging radar that we expect to be introduced into the market at the commercial level, starting in 2021. The basic idea is to collect more data points and do more with it rather than filtering it. The 4D imaging radar will generate a true point cloud that will be monitored point by point, cluster by cluster, frame by frame, to help in classifying objects in addition to getting their relative position, distance, and velocity.
And this is where the story starts to heat up. LiDAR is basically like 4D radar but works with infrared light that reflects from the target and allows a measurement of the time difference between emission and reception, enabling the reconstruction of a 3D scene thanks to a point cloud.
The majority of OEMs integrating LiDAR are doing it to enable automated driving features like highway driving but also to increase safety and the performance of AEB. Volvo, with its long-range LiDAR, targets the highway-driving use case, while Hyundai, with a LiDAR integrated in each headlamp, addresses increased safety and can detect cut-in or cut-off maneuvers.
In theory, LiDAR offers the best range resolution and could be ideal to easily reconstruct a 3D scene with enough accuracy to detect and recognize objects. That is why it has been the center of sensing research and development (R&D) at major ADAS and robotic players over the past decade.
The first LiDAR embedded by Audi used a mechanical scanning approach with an edge emitting laser at 905 nm and avalanche photodiodes, but the cost was already more than $600. The next LiDARs used by BMW and Volvo are expected to be even more expensive. The cost is an important enabler for automakers, but LiDARs are not affordable yet. Their cost is about 10× more expensive than a camera.
Short-range LiDAR with no mechanical scanning could be cost-effective with lower performance and complexity compared with long-range LiDAR. They could be used to increase safety in harsh weather conditions in the next two to three years. Many companies in the supply chain are preparing for a product launch between 2021 and 2023. This includes, among others, Audi with Valeo, Innoviz with Magna and BMW, Luminar with Volvo, and Velodyne with Hyundai Mobis and Hyundai.
Yole predicts that the LiDAR market for automotive and industrial applications will be worth $1.7 billion in 2020, with growth expected at 19%, and reaching $3.8 billion in 2025.
Automotive applications are expected to be the main driver for LiDAR in the next five years, delivering $1.8 billion in revenue between 2019 and 2025. Thanks to several partnerships between LiDAR manufacturers and car manufacturers, Yole expects that 3.2% of personal cars will have LiDAR by 2025.3
In the end, radar and LiDAR are complementary and competitive technologies at the same time. The relative low maturity of 4D radar allows the expansion of LiDAR in R&D and some mass manufacturing.
However, LiDAR still has to prove its efficiency and relevance. Radar is a masterpiece of automotive safety systems, thanks to its efficiency, simplicity, and reliability, but LiDAR still has some way to go.
Covid-19 pandemic has reshuffled the cards
The current Covid-19 pandemic will obviously affect the market in 2020, and the automotive market will suffer from a lack of sales due to a demand shock at the consumer level. We expect a 20% impact (latest estimation) on the automotive market with a progressive recovery in 2021 and 2022, as shown in the below figure.
Thus, the investment priority at OEMs could be given to vehicle electrification (or an alternative technology) more than on vehicle automation because carbon penalties have a direct financial impact on them. In addition, governments are likely to inject subsidies to boost the economy while asking for faster automotive decarbonization, as is the case in Europe.
This notwithstanding, safety requirements will not be relaxed, and we expect Level 1–2 and Level 2+/2++ to keep growing, thus offering a great opportunity for the automotive radar and LiDAR industries, but maybe just postponed.
About the author
Guillaume Girardin, Ph.D., is director of the Photonics, Sensing, & Display Division at Yole Développement, part of Yole Group of Companies. As director, he also performs several technical activities covering sensing technologies, including solid-state lighting and display, MEMS, sensors, actuators, imaging, photonics, and optoelectronics fields.
Based on his valuable experience in the semiconductor industry, Guillaume manages the expansion of the technical and market expertise of his team by increasing synergies around imaging, lighting and display, and enlarging the optoelectronics scope. The team interacts daily with leading companies, allowing the analysts to collect a large amount of data and integrate their understanding of the evolution of the market with technology breakthroughs. In parallel, Guillaume’s mission is focused on the management of business relationships with leaders of the industry and the development of market research and strategy consulting activities within the Yole Group.
Dr. Girardin holds a Ph.D. in Physics and Nanotechnology from the Claude Bernard University Lyon 1 (Lyon, France) and an M.Sc. in Technology and Innovation Management from EM Lyon School of Business (Lyon, France).
References
1Status of the Radar Industry Report, Yole Développement, 2020
2Status of the Radar Industry Report, Yole Développement, 2020
3LiDAR for Automotive and Industrial Applications Report, Yole Développement, 2020
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