By Gina Roos, editor-in-chief.
A new 5G report, commissioned by Qualcomm Technologies Inc., forecasts that 5G will generate $13.2 trillion in sales enablement by 2035, according to IHS Markit. The market researcher describes sales enablement as a measure of global sales activity that 5G will enable across the 16 International Standard Industrial Classification sectors.
IHS Markit increased 5G sales by $1 trillion over the original forecast in 2017, which estimated $12.3 trillion in sales. This was in large part due to the early completion of initial 5G standard and accelerated 5G rollouts. As of today, there are now more than 30 live 5G networks and more than 40 OEMs launching 5G-enabled devices, said Qualcomm, making it the fastest rollout of a cellular technology generation.
The IHS Markit analysis assesses the 5G economy both from a technology perspective — how 5G improves on existing applications and enables new use cases — and how 5G technology will impact the global economy.
Key findings of IHS Markit 5G Economy Study reveal:
- The global 5G industry will support 22.3 million jobs in 2035.
- The global 5G value chain will invest $235B annually to expand the 5G technology base.
- The U.S. will lead in 5G cellular R&D and capital expenditures with 27% average annual investment, followed by China at 26%
There are several key industries, including transportation & logistics, manufacturing, utilities and agriculture that are most likely to be impacted by 5G technology adoption. One big winner will be manufacturing, benefiting from the need to produce 5G components, infrastructure, and devices in high volume. It also will drive the need for 5G connectivity for mobile or moving devices such as automated guided vehicles (AGV), handheld devices, and robotic arms to improve monitoring and operation, and collaboration between devices.
The study also finds 5G can have a positive impact on time to market with new products, and greater product customization. In addition, the integration of 5G connectivity into end products, such as white goods, will enable OEMs to offer after-sale services such as remote monitoring and maintenance for further monetization.
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The study finds that 5G will be used in three key areas: enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB), massive internet of things (MIoT), and mission critical services (MCS).
In the area of eMBB two things are expected to drive adoption – extending cellular coverage into a broader range of structures including office buildings, industrial parks, shopping malls, and large venues, and improving capacity to handle a significantly greater number of devices using high volumes of data. This translates into a better experience for:
- Enhanced indoor wireless broadband coverage
- Enhanced outdoor wireless broadband
- Fixed wireless broadband deployments
- Enterprise teamwork/collaboration
- Training/education
- Augmented and virtual reality (AR and VR, respectively)
- Extending mobile computing
- Enhanced digital signage
Second, 5G is expected to build on traditional machine-to-machine (M2M) and IoT applications. Benefits of 5G – improved low-power requirements, the ability to operate in licensed and unlicensed spectrum, and the ability to provide more flexible coverage will drive lower costs in MIoT applications, thus enabling greater scale. This means a greater uptake of mobile technologies, said researchers, to address MIoT applications such as:
- Asset tracking
- Smart agriculture
- Smart cities
- Energy/utility monitoring
- Physical infrastructure
- Smart homes
- Remote monitoring
- Beacons and connected shoppers
Third, MCS is a big market opportunity for mobile technology, supporting applications that require high reliability, ultra-low-latency connectivity with strong security, and availability. This includes applications such as:
- Autonomous vehicles
- Drones
- Industrial automation
- Remote patient monitoring/telehealth
- Smart grid
However, the 5G economy also will result in more complexity in policymaking and regulation as new business models emerge, and the traditional ways of delivering goods and services are either altered or go away. Researchers said areas where policy and regulatory modernization will be required for a 5G-ready world include public safety, cybersecurity, privacy, spectrum allocation, public infrastructure, healthcare, spectrum licensing and permitting, and education, training, and development, according to the report.
In terms of standards, there are several efforts under way. The 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP) completed Release 15, the first full set of 5G standards in 2018, which primarily enables eMBB use cases. Future 5G standards based on Release 16 and 17 will be developed in the next few years, and will address MIoT and MCS requirements.
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