By George Leopold
Ambitious proposals from social media giants like Facebook and Google and from commercial space pioneers such as SpaceX to deliver Internet service to underserved regions using constellations of satellites could eventually be overtaken by the bandwidth requirements of an emerging Internet of Things, according to commercial space experts.
Similar proposals to offer space-based voice and data services, such as Iridium, emerged in the late 1990s but mostly foundered on lack of demand. Despite a laudable desire to provide underserved regions with Internet access, space experts remain unconvinced there is sufficient demand. “What makes it different this time around?” asks David Logsdon, senior director for new and emerging technologies at the industry group CompTIA. “Where is the pent-up demand?”
Along with the emerging IoT, the pent-up demand for space-based Internet and wireless services comes primarily from the need for backup wireless capacity, Logsdon argues. Another is a potential byproduct of climate change: More maritime channels may be needed to cover the polar ice caps as they melt and shipping traffic expands at the top of the world.
In April, AT&T moved to add wireless capacity in dense urban areas through a deal with satellite service provider Globecomm. The deal would allow customers to buy cellular or satellite connectivity from AT&T. Observers note that the deal illustrates how early movers are trying to devise ways to pull together IoT networks that would support early industrial applications, such as tracking ships, monitoring crops, or collecting data from oil and gas pipelines. Increasingly, communications satellites are seen as one way to expand coverage while adding capacity.
If those predictions pan out, IoT applications could prove a bigger driver of commercial space networks than the ubiquitous connectivity social media giants like Facebook are promoting, observers say.
For now, satellite launch costs remain a major hurdle for any proposed space-based network. That's likely to remain the case even if a new generation of smaller satellites could be deployed in a shrinking number of low-Earth-orbit slots (it’s getting very crowded up there). Then there are the inherent latency challenges of delivering Internet services from low-Earth-orbit. A geosynchronous constellation of satellites would only increase the latency challenges, experts note.
Established providers of satellite broadband and wireless services, such as ViaSat, are developing new approaches for delivering Internet connectivity from space. But launch costs remain high, as much as $85 million for a constellation, Logsdon of CompTIA says. The cost of getting a pound to orbit remains prohibitively expensive despite the efforts of commercial space pioneers like Elon Musk to reduce the per-pound cost to orbit to about $1,000.
(Musk has successfully returned the first stage of his Falcon rocket to a floating platform in an effort to reuse expensive space hardware. Still, analysts note that the hard landings damage engines that must be rebuilt before they can be reused. Merely demonstrating the capability, however, is a key first step toward reducing launch costs.)
In parallel with these efforts, regulators are integrating communication satellite technology into their planning for future 5G and 3GPP wireless networks. Thomas Wheeler, chairman of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), recently noted the importance of sharing valuable spectrum among terrestrial wireless, as well as satellite users, as 5G networks are rolled out. The FCC signaled that it is placing greater emphasis on satellite services such as ViaSat’s, as the agency seeks to provide greater broadband connectivity in rural areas.
Emerging 5G networks are destined to play a key role in supporting the massive IoT deployments, the Washington-based Information Technology and Innovation Foundation asserted in a report released June 30. “Sharing high-band spectrum with existing users, such as satellites, has to be worked out, but bands of this high frequency are relatively greenfield, with large swaths of spectrum available.”
Although it is unlikely that launch costs will decline at a rate that makes the dream of ubiquitous connectivity from space a reality anytime soon, the emergence of constructs like the industrial IoT and the need for backup wireless capacity could help launch space networks.
Logsdon of CompTIA estimates that IoT applications could help spawn a $21 billion space communications market over the next five years. “There is pent-up demand for IoT services,” he says. Moreover, the industry group's Space Enterprise Council views efforts to build space-based IoT networks as part of a convergence between the space and technology sectors in which the latter has promoted IoT as new way to sell chips in an otherwise down semiconductor market.
For now, Facebook appears to have backed off the idea of launching an expensive Internet in space initiative. One indication was its recent decision to join Microsoft in laying a 4,000-mile cable in the Atlantic Ocean that would deliver about 160 terabits per second of bandwidth. Unlike most undersea cables that connect data centers in the New York area with Europe, the Facebook-Microsoft cable will run from Virginia to Spain.
Whether connectivity is based in space or under the ocean, technologists stress that new network capabilities are emerging to handle the growing amounts of data likely to be generated by applications like IoT. Hubs inside data centers on either side of the Atlantic could then be used to connect IoT and other data to the cloud, explained Ihab Tarazi, chief technology officer with datacenter giant Equinix.
George Leopold is a former executive editor of EE Times and author of Calculated Risk: The Supersonic Life and Times of Gus Grissom. Connect with him on Twitter at @gleopold1.
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