The smartphone revolution: An interview with Majeed Ahmad

The smartphone revolution: An interview with Majeed Ahmad

Electronic Products Magazine interviews the former Global Sources and EE Times Asia Editor-in-Chief about his new book

BY JEFFREY BAUSCH

Google vs. Facebook. Android vs. iOS. Reasons why Microsoft can’t seem to crack the smartphone industry. These are just some of the topics that Majeed Ahmad covers in his new book, “Smartphone: Mobile Revolution at the Crossroads of Communications, Computing and Consumer Electronics.”

(Via: amazon.com)

Majeed was kind enough to take some time out of his busy tour schedule to answer a few of our questions about his new book and the smartphone industry as a whole.

About the book

Electronic Products: What interests you most about smartphones that you would write a book about these devices?

Majeed Ahmad: I’ve always been fascinated by the convergence among various facets of the electronics industry. I closely followed earlier initiatives like ISDN, ATM, and John Malone’s 500-channel multimedia universe. While these initiatives largely failed, the smartphone was most interesting to me because it brought the promise of convergence to the device level.

What also motivated me to write a book on smartphones was the fact that the smartphone story is scattered into bits and pieces. This is due to the fact that the industry is developing at the intersection of wireless, IT, and consumer electronics, with media and commerce domains closely tied to it. I wanted to have the smartphone story captured as a coherent document for managers and engineers to make sense of it all.

EP: Why do you feel that the smartphone story will ultimately be bigger than the PC story?

MA: Smartphones are faster, more location-aware, service-oriented devices that are quickly becoming more pervasive among the general public. In my opinion, smartphones will eventually become a users’ one-stop connection to the computing world at large, thus making the PC a secondary object of desire.

Motorola’s Atrix handset, though not hugely successful, is a harbinger of how smartphones are gradually acquiring much of a PC’s attributes. A user could place it in a standalone dock connected to a screen, or slip it into a laptop dock, and the phone instantly becomes the conduit for an Android notebook. Apple moving its Mac PC platform increasingly toward its iOS mobile platform is another testament of the shift from PC to mobile side.

EP: You explore in great detail the various major mobile platforms out there, including Android, iOS, Symbian, webOS, and Windows Phone 7. Of the major platforms, which do you see having the most staying power? What do you think lends to the success of these platforms? Have you noticed any indications from any of these providers that they’re beginning to fall behind?

MA: The book contends that it’ll most likely be an Android vs. iOS game, with Microsoft’s Windows Phone having the fighting chance to establish itself as the third horse. Microsoft will likely need help from the rest of the wireless industry and will have to execute effectively this time, especially on the mobile cloud front. Symbian is gone and webOS is in a state of quandary.

Apple’s iOS boasts genuine innovation and has managed to stay ahead of the competition, first through the power of apps, and now by riding the magic of cloud and their new conversational interface, “Siri.” Google’s Android is a fast follower and can rival Apple in innovation as well. Its biggest merit is its model that inherently draws economy of scale. The fight is just beginning and we might see a lot of fireworks this upcoming year.

EP: What has been Microsoft’s biggest problem in not being able to define the smartphone market the way it has with PCs?

MA: Microsoft failed to carry out their own innovation and has merely followed trend lines. My book details Microsoft’s reactionary instincts in the mobile computing realm: They launched Windows CE back in 1996 as a handheld computing platform in reaction to Apple’s Newton, then as a PDA platform in response to the Palm Pilot in 1998, then as a smartphone platform as an answer to the Handspring Treo in 2002, and then as a portable media player Zune in reaction to the iPod in 2004. Finally, Microsoft set itself to build Windows Phone 7 touchscreen handheld devices in reaction to the iPhone and the iPod Touch. Through all these years, Microsoft has always been a follower, not a leader.

EP: You discuss Nokia’s inability to dominate a market which it created. If you could point to one thing, what do you think was the company’s biggest mistake?

MA: I think Nokia’s biggest mistake was taking too long to fix Symbian’s user interface. Also, its tendency to see the smartphone business solely from a mobile OS standpoint led the company to overlook the importance of the ecosystem built around smart mobile devices (something Apple was able to execute so brilliantly.)

Simply put, Nokia was a hardware organization that grossly underestimated the challenges in building a successful software strategy.

EP: What do you believe led to the fall of RIM’s Blackberry?

MA: BlackBerry was the first successful smartphone device, and the secret was RIM’s relentless focus on the smartphone’s first killer application: Wireless e-mail. But when Apple reinvented the iPhone with touchscreen, RIM faced a serious crossroads: How could it transition from what it has made so successful, that is, the ability to send e-mails from tiny built-in keypads on mobile handsets?

They didn’t have time to react because what followed touchscreens was the real game-changer: Thousands of apps being made available on touchscreen-based iPhones.

RIM was simply caught flat-footed. It wasn’t that easy for the company to move away from the keypad-based user interface. They’ve spent a few precious post-iPhone years in ambivalence and during this time it struggled in all the areas where Apple was finding success: Mobile OS, wireless web, apps, and tablet computers. RIM has been walking a tight rope with its strategy of preserving its keypad-centric legacy while trying to catch up to the touchscreen fever. Their only way out through this quandary is to come up with something genuinely innovative.

EP: You claim that your book is the first to provide intimate detail on all major aspects of the smartphone business. Would you like to elaborate on that a bit more?

MA: There is no dearth of content on smartphones, but it’s not merely a single device or product; it’s a movement now embodying the post-PC era. It needs to be put into context — a complete understanding of what a smartphone is, how it evolved, and where it’s heading. For that you need a comprehensive, detailed account that encompasses not only the recent history but also a detailed view of the key building blocks, major players, and business development cycle. The book offers a complete treatment of the whole ecosystem.

Moreover, to provide the full picture, the book delves into areas like 4G, cloud computing, rise of tablets, and the disruption that the smartphone is causing both on product and corporate fronts. It offers a past, present and future storyline for making it an interesting read.

Also, technology content is presented in business language, which means it could be useful for both the technical and non-technical audience.

Google vs. Apple

EP: What’s your stance on the whole Google “stealing” from Apple debate?

MA: It’s a sensitive subject, but as someone trying to produce a definitive history of smartphones, all I can say is that when Google acquired Android in 2005, it originally considered Microsoft as the competitor. Once they (Google) saw what Apple was doing with the iPhone, the company quickly changed focus and began producing similar touchscreen-based phones under a new business model.

EP: Steve Wozniak recently made headlines by stating that, in his opinion, Android is ahead of iOS. What do you make of this quote?

MA: The IT industry has a history of gathering around a single platform and economy of scale is usually the key in such undertakings. Android seems to have displayed that potential. It is a highly technical product that requires a lot of integration into the hardware platform that users want it to run on. In return, it provides a nice application framework for some pretty interesting features on its own. Also, because it’s free, people who want to invest their time and resources can use it as a building block in the solution to whatever problem they are trying to solve.

EP: As the smartphone audience continues to grow, there’s a separation developing between the Android and iOS audiences; that is, Android is for power users who want the ability to go in and customize their phone, and iOS is for the casual user who wants an intuitive, smooth operating system. Do you see this as a trend that’s likely to continue, or do you think both platforms are going to make more of an effort to be like the other, thus resulting in a blending of these two audiences?

MA: The face-off between Apple and Google over the mobile gold rush has pitted two companies with very different technology approaches and philosophies against each other. Google is counting on devices that are open to the web. Apple’s handsets, by contrast, are vertically integrated products designed to make technology easier to use. But as smartphone technology matures, everything will boil down to one critical factor: Where is the best value? Both Apple and Google will continue to enhance their products so as to provide the best value possible to mobile users. The success of their innovations will be key in these undertakings.

EP: While there are plenty of mobile platforms out there today, a majority of folks are faced with the decision of having to choose between Android and iOS. Would you care to state, in your professional opinion, a single, clear-cut advantage that each one has over the other?

Android’s advantage over iOS:

MA: Android’s reach and economy of scale benefit is clearly what creates doubts about Apple’s ability to dominate the market with their iOS software. Google has the potential to not only reach a bigger market, what with the industry clout of partners like HTC and Samsung, it could also bring down the prices of smartphones to a level where it would really be hard for Apple to compete.

EP: iOS’s advantage of Android:

MA: Apple’s ability to control the whole ecosystem — the leverage of having hardware, software and apps distribution under one roof — provides it with greater room for innovation and for enhancing user experience. This level of influence has clearly made some companies envious (there are reports that a few manufacturers, like Samsung, want to build their own operating systems). Google’s move to acquire Motorola is seen by some industry circles as a testament of the allure of an integrated hardware-software business model epitomized by Apple.

Smartphone outlook

EP: What does the future hold for smartphones? Specifically, what new services and markets do you see coming about from all of this?

MA: The most exciting thing about smartphone technology is that the field is wide open. Every crop of phones brings new designs and interface ideas. There appear to be three key trends, though, that are likely to influence the fundamental changes in the role and nature of smartphones over the next few years: Widespread broadband availability, digitization of content, and the continued increase of portable computing power. These trends have already played a crucial role in turning cell phones into smartphones, and they could very well continue to drive the evolution of smartphones into devices that are always connected to the web, providing users with easy access to their digital content as well as a plethora of readily-available personal services.

EP: A majority of smartphone users are young and social media savvy. How do you think this unique audience will come to impact the future of smartphone technology?

MA: As the saying goes, “The sky’s the limit.” It’s a well-known fact that mobile is on top of Facebook’s priorities. Mobile’s integration with social networks will most likely define the next great breakthrough, much like the advent of Siri. It could also open a new battle front between major social media players like Facebook and Google. Also, there could be up-and-coming outfits like Groupon who could cash in on new partnership opportunities.

Simply, the next big frontier is here in the guise of mobile-social networks integration. Who makes the best of it is still an open question.

EP: What do you foresee cloud computing’s impact being on smartphones?

MA: If there is one industry in which cloud computing will have the most far-reaching implications, it’s going to be the smartphone industry. In the book, a whole chapter is dedicated to cloud’s emerging relationship with smartphones and how it could impact the future of the smartphone industry.

As the book contends, there are four factors that could make cloud computing a disruptive force in the mobile world: First, the fact that storage and processing power could shift to cloud will make apps far more powerful and their reach much more widespread. Second, normal phones with web browsing capability could instantly transform into smartphones merely by connecting to a cloud. Third, networks like 4G will empower phones through a safe and efficient connection to the cloud. Finally, the cloud will enable smartphones to perform powerful new features like artificial intelligence and augmented reality. This will move them closer toward functionality similar to powerful devices like notebook PCs.

EP: What do you make of all the lawsuits that the manufacturers are embroiled in today? Do you foresee these cases ever coming to a rest?

MA: This is no brouhaha or industry gamesmanship. This whole episode underlines how big stakes are going to be to own the future platform for smart mobile devices. Google stunned the industry last year by acquiring Motorola, and its new CEO Larry Page was heard to say that “he didn’t have a choice.” Many observers interpreted that as Google’s admission that it needed to own intellectual property in order to hold its ground in the industry.

You see, the smartphone business is not merely about selling handsets, mobile OS software or apps. It’s the future of digital content, advertising, commerce, and more, all merged together on a single, powerful platform that’s at stake. This is why mobile platform providers like Apple and Google are eyeing to become the news, entertainment, and communications networks of the twenty-first century. This battle is just kicking in, so I don’t expect the patent conflicts to go away any time soon. Innovation is going to be the battle field for smartphone riches, and patents will continue to play a big part in who is able to do what.

EP: How do foresee the tablet industry affecting smartphones?

MA: The rise of tablets won’t impact smartphones for two simple reasons: First is mobility. It’s driving the whole smartphone revolution and is tied closer to these devices rather than tablets. Furthermore is the fact that, unlike smartphones, tablets aren’t built primarily for communication.

Second has to do with the more promising applications of the mobile era mobile payments, m-commerce, and location. They’re all inherently better on smartphones because of their design.

If the tablets are to have any impact, it’s most likely going to be on the PC industry. A recent research report by Goldman Sachs forecasts that tablets could eventually replace one in three PCs, thus affirming this premise.

Questions for Majeed

EP: What was your first smartphone?

Sony Ericsson P990i

EP: What smartphone do you own right now?

MA: Samsung Galaxy II

EP: What app do you use the most?

MA: I’m on an exploration voyage right now, and so haven’t exactly settled on any favorites just yet (except the usual ones like Gmail, Facebook, Google Maps, etc.)

EP: What advice would you give to those out there looking to get a new smartphone? What should they consider before making their purchase?

MA: Smartphones come in many shapes and sizes, and it’s becoming even more diverse with the availability of apps that can do just about anything you want. For buyers, it is perhaps most important to identify specific needs. What is driving you to get a new smartphone? Certain devices will do certain things better than others. Do you research before you go to the store so you have an idea of the type of phone you need, not the one that all the advertisements are telling you that you should want. ■

Interested in purchasing the book? Visit the publisher’s store: createspace.com/3571695